POPULATION GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA – A COINTEGRATION APPROACH (1970- 2015)

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the relationship between agricultural output, Population growth and Economic growth in Nigeria for the period of 35years (1981-2015) using Ordinary Least Square estimation technique. The secondary data was obtained from the CBN Statistical Bulletin 2016. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test was used to determine the stationarity of the variables and the Johansen Co-integration test was employed to testfor the long-run relationship between the variables in the series. The pairwise Granger causality test and error correction Mechanism was also adopted. It was discovered that there is a long-run relationship among the variables. Also the empirical findings was apparent from the regression result that agricultural output has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria while population Growth exert a negative effect on economic Growth in Nigeria for the understudy, This latter finding is in tandem with Robert Malthus expectation. Therefore, Government should make effort to capture more Nigerians unto agricultural productivity, enhance human capacity building and yield meaningful and positive effect on Economic Growth in Nigeria.

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