ABSTRACT

The study examines the impact of import and export growth on economic growth in Nigeria, using export, import, exchange rate and trade openness as proxies for import and export trade (international trade) while Gross Domestic Product represents economic growth. The broad objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of import and export trade on economic growth in Nigeria based on time series data on variables considered relevant indicators of economic growth and, import and export trade. The analysis was based on data extracted from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study employed regression analysis as the method of analysis using co-integration and error correction modeling techniques to find the long-run relationship between economic performance and, import and export trade. The result of the analysis showed that all the variables except trade openness (TOPNES) were statistically insignificant. This means that Nigeria is running a monocultural economy where only oil act as the sole support of the economy without tangible support from other sectors such as industrial/manufacturing and agriculture. The government should therefore pursue aggressive diversification of the economy by putting in place policies and incentives that will boost non-oil export, the manufacturing sector and overall promote the industrial growth of Nigeria. Also, the study recommends that policy makers should adopt policies on trade liberalization such as reduction of non-tariff barriers, reducing tariffs, reducing or eliminating quotas that will enable the economy to grow at spectacular rates. And thus this study supports the proposition that degree of openness has direct robust relationship with economic growth since the proxy variable is positive and statistically significant in the model.